The soil beneath Mexico's avocado empire is drying out faster than anyone expected, and a new study warns that this slow motion collapse could threaten both the region's water supplies and its most famous crop.
Researchers found that in Michoacan, the state that supplies most of the world's avocados, the ground is losing its ability to hold moisture. The study, published in July 2026, focused on the basin surrounding Lake Zirahuen, a freshwater lake in the heart of avocado country.
The ground is losing its grip on water
The study measured something called soil water retention. That is the capacity of soil to soak up and store rainfall. In forests around Lake Zirahuen, the soil could hold about 0.37 cubic meters of water per cubic meter of soil. In avocado plantations, that number dropped to 0.30. In fields used for annual crops, it fell even further to 0.28.
That difference matters. When soil cannot hold water, rain runs off the surface instead of sinking in. That means less water seeps down to recharge the underground aquifers that people rely on for drinking water. It also means more erosion and more sediment washing into the lake.
Avocado orchards are changing the landscape
The research was led by Arturo Chacon, a scientist at the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. His team compared soil samples from forests, avocado orchards, and annual crop fields. They found that the conversion of forest to farmland was the main driver of the problem.
Michoacan has seen a massive expansion of avocado plantations over the past two decades. Forests have been cleared to make room for more trees. But those avocado trees, while profitable, do not manage water the same way native forest does. Their root systems are different. The soil under them becomes compacted. Organic matter declines. The whole system loses its sponge like quality.
Local people in the communities around Lake Zirahuen depend on the lake and the groundwater for their daily needs. They also depend on the avocado economy. The study suggests that both are now at risk. If the soil continues to dry out, the lake could shrink and wells could run low.
The study did not offer solutions. It simply documented the trend. But the numbers are clear. The soil in one of Mexico's most productive agricultural regions is becoming less able to do its most basic job: holding water.
